How to play Liar’s Dice: odds, bidding and bluffing

Liar’s Dice rewards a little maths and a lot of nerve. Here’s how to work out what’s likely, and how to use it.

The rules

Everyone rolls five dice in secret. Players take turns bidding on how many dice of one number are on the whole table, counting 1s as wild. Each bid must be higher: more dice, or the same number of dice of a higher face. Instead of bidding, you can call “Liar!” on the last bid. All dice are revealed; if the bid was true the caller loses a die, otherwise the bidder does. The last player with dice wins.

The key number: one in three

With 1s wild, any die has a 1 in 3 chance of counting for a given face (the face itself or a 1). So among dice you can’t see, expect about a third of them to count.

Example: 20 dice on the table, you hold two 5s and a 1. That’s 3 of yours. The other 15 dice should hold about 5 more. So about 8 fives in total is a fair guess.

Bidding

• Bid on what you hold. Your own dice make your bid more likely to be true.
• Raise slowly. The smallest legal raise keeps you safe and passes the pressure on.
• Switch faces. Raising to a higher face at the same quantity is often the cheapest move.

Bluffing

Now and then, bid on a face you don’t hold. It hides your real hand and can push opponents into an overbid. Just don’t do it when the bid is already high.

When to call Liar

Work out the expected count. If the bid is well above it, call. If it’s close, consider raising instead: being slightly wrong costs a die either way.