Bid odds: one in three
With ones wild, a third of the dice you can’t see should count for any face. Use the one-in-three rule to judge every bid in Liar’s Dice. Odds and calling · lesson 1 of 2.
Read this lesson as text
The lesson in words
Any die you can’t see has a 1 in 3 chance of counting for a given face: it could be that face or a wild 1.
So a fair guess for any face is your own matching dice, plus a third of everyone else’s.
Start with what you know.
Try it: Tap your dice that would count in a bid on 5s.
Your dice, plus a third of the rest. Next: when to call.
Questions
About how many 5s are on the whole table?
Your 3, plus about a third of 15, which is 5. About 8 in total.
Which opening bid is sensible?
You hold three 6s (two 6s and a wild 1), and the 5 hidden dice should add one or two more, so about four or five in all. Two 6s is safe and leaves room to raise. Raising slowly passes the pressure on.